2-16 data dump: Midterm primary off to a (relatively) brisk start

Early voting for the March 3 primary is underway. Here are a few early data points from Vote Tracker. Note, the numbers in the 2024 link will change as some counties report submitted ballots later.

Voting is ahead of the 2022 pace

So far, turnout is higher than at a similar point in 2022. That midterm also featured US Senate primaries (in which Cheri Beasley and Ted Budd won their parties’ nominations).

According to Vote Tracker, 94,495 ballots* have been accepted through Sunday, February 15, for the March 3 primary. That compares to 75,192 ballots accepted at a similar point in 2022. The real gap is slightly higher since not all ballots through the 15th have been processed.

Ballots for the March 3 primary by date accepted.

Democrats are outpacing Republicans in ballot requests

More people have requested ballots for the Democratic primary so far. 57.6 percent of all voters have requested ballots for the Democratic primary compared to 42.2 percent for the Republican primary. At a similar point in 2022, 51.3 percent were for Democratic ballots and 48.3 percent for Republican ballots.

Ballots by primary ballot requested

Democrats still lead in ballot requests when considering unaffiliated voters only.

Among unaffiliated voters, 54.0 percent requested Democratic ballots and 45.8 percent requested Republican ballots. At a similar point in 2022, 63.5 percent had requested Republican ballots and 35.1 percent had requested Democratic ballots. That 2022 proportion probably reflects a more competitive US Senate race on the Republican side, as an attempt by crossover progressive voters to influence the 11th Congressional District Republican primary against Madison Cawthorn.

Presets: Some Races to watch

Here are some intriguing races in the March 3 primary:

Other races will be highlighted in next Monday’s data dump.

*(You will see 94,493 ballots if you clink on the link on Februay 16. Two ballots were misdated as February 17.)